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要搭上中国发展浪潮已太晚,然而另一个机会正向我们展现希望,304永利集团游戏官网

It's too late to catch the China wave, but another big opportunity is showing promise

想要搭上中国的发展浪潮已经太晚了,然而另一个巨大的机会正向我们展现希望。

To see the transformation of modern India, you should start with a look at an unconventional place – a slum. "If you go to a slum in Brazil you will feel endangered," says Ketan Patel. "If you go to a slum in India, you won't feel threatened because everyone is working. It may only be sorting garbage - it's a horrible job but you are so hungry for work you will take the opportunity, or if it's the next step up you are sewing bags together."

如果我们想要看到现代印度的转变,那么我们就应该先将目光聚集到一个非常规的地方--贫民窟。“如果你到了一个巴西的贫民窟,你会感觉身处险境,”科坦.帕特尔说道。“而如果你去了一个印度的贫民窟,你则不会感受到威胁,因为每个人都在工作。也许可能只是分拣垃圾的工作--这是一项非常糟糕的工作,但是如果你对一份工作异常渴望的话,那么你便会抓住这个机会,又或者是找一份把袋子缝起来的工作。”

A slum may be a pit of poverty and disadvantage, but an Indian one isn't a life sentence; it's a way station, "a parking lot for human beings", as Patel puts it. And the movement of traffic through the parking lot is speeding up as India starts to deliver on its potential and opportunity widens.

贫民窟也许充斥着贫困和缺点,但是生活在印度的贫民窟并非无期徒刑;就像帕特尔说的那样,这是一个中转站,“一个人类的停车场”。随着印度开始发挥其自身的潜力,印度优德88手机中文版客服将会有越来越的机会,“停车场”内“车辆”的更替速度也在日益加快。

Patel invites us to take a closer look beneath the bits of corrugated iron that maybe five or eight people call home: "The most educated person in the family is probably your 12-year-old daughter. Your boys are also going to school [thanks to a national drive to improve school access] but the girls are probably picking it up faster", a syndrome not unknown in Australia, either. "When you get just enough money to get a tiny abode on the edge of the city, you buy it. Now you are transformed from rural peasantry and you have a small abode in the city."

帕特尔邀请我们近距离地参观一个由几块破铜烂铁搭建而成的“小屋”,这个地方被5个人或者8个人称为家。帕特尔说道:“家里受教育程度最高的人可能会是你12岁的女儿。你的儿子们也在上学(感觉政府在全国范围内对改善入学条件方面所做出的努力),但是女孩们可能要学得更快一些,”这种现象在澳大利亚也并不罕见。“当你攒够钱足以承担得起城市边缘的一座小房子时,你就会买下它。这样一来你便可以从农民阶层中脱身,并在城市中拥有一个属于自己的小小的栖身之处了。”

"It's an informal process to transform people's lives and that's what's driving the curve of India's GDP upwards," says Patel, an ethnic Indian who knows something about grasping opportunity. He grew up in an immigrant family in a poor part of London and is now a strategist and investor who has the rare distinction of having advised China's Xi Jinping as well as India's Narendra Modi on economic strategy.

“这是一个人们改变自己生活的非正式过程,正是这种转变推动了印度GDP的曲线上升,”帕特尔说道。他同样也是一个知道如何该把握机会的印度裔。他在伦敦一个贫穷的移民家庭中长大,如今则已经成为了一名策略师和投资者。他甚至罕见地获得了给中国主席以及印度总理提供经济战略方面建议的机会。

Over the next 10 years, the pursuit of opportunity will drive a mighty urbanisation. The proportion of Indians living in the cities "was 40 per cent, it's heading to 50 per cent and in the next decade you will see 60 per cent", predicts Patel.

在未来十年里,印度人这种对机遇的追求将加速印度的城市化进程。印度城市居民曾占人口总数的40%,如今这个数字正在迫近50%,而到了下个10年,你将成看到这个数字上升到60%,”帕特尔预测到。

Australians have seen this pattern before. The urbanisation of China together with widening economic opportunity drove its transformation. Now India is following. As a result, Patel tells me, "it's almost as if every industry is transforming. At first glance you won't see it because you'll see all these people and chaos but if you look under the hood, you will see how fast it's changing".

澳大利亚人也曾经经历过这种转变。而中国的城市化进程以及随之而来的机遇则推动了中国的转型。如今印度也走上了相同的道路。帕特尔告诉我,“几乎每个行业都在经历着转变。乍看之下,你无法察觉到这些转变,因为你看到的只会是所有的那些人以及混乱,但是如果你观察入微的话,便会意识到它在经历着多么快速的变化。”

India's total economic output as measured by GDP was about the same as Australia's in 2013. Next year Australia's is expected to be around $US1.4 trillion ($1.9 trillion). India's is projected to be around $US3 trillion, double Australia's. The gap is only going to accelerate.

以GDP衡量的话,印度的经济总量在2013年时和澳大利亚差不多。明年澳大利亚的gdp预计将达到1.9万亿美元左右,而印度的gdp预计将会达到4万亿美元,是澳大利亚的两倍之多。而且这种差距只会逐渐的加大。

Australia's Ashok Jacob, long-time financial confidant to the Packer family and now chairman of funds manager Ellerston Capital, says that India has annual economic growth rates of 6 to 7 per cent "locked in and if the chaos in India fades a little it will be 7 to 8 per cent".

澳大利亚的奥索科.雅各布是Packer家族长期的金融顾问,以及Ellerston基金的董事长。他表示印度经济增速维持在6-7%是一件“铁板钉钉”的事,如果印度目前的混乱能够有所消退的话,这个数字将上升到7-8%。

"It's a long-term growth story," says Jacob, also chair of the federal government's Australia-India Council. "We are trying to tell Australian business, 'you guys need to lean in to India. Every industry in India will increase its sales by 10 per cent a year over the next decade.

“印度的经济增长将会维持很长时间,”雅各布说到,他同时还是联邦政府的澳大利亚-印度委员会的主席。“我们正试图告诉澳大利亚商界,你们这些家伙需要向印度靠拢了。在未来十年内,印度每个行业的销售额都将以每年10%的速度增长。”

"If just 1 per cent of your business is in India, in a couple of years it will be 2 per cent and in a few more years it will be 10 per cent," he tells me. "If we're thinking about going to China, it's too late, we've missed China. India is the opportunity."

“如果你在印度投入了自己1%的业务,那么两三年后它就会变成2%,而再过几年它就会上升到10%,”他告诉我说,“如果我们还想着去中国投资的话,现在已经太晚了,我们已经错过了中国。印度就是我们的机会。”

India's transformation began with an early liberalisation program beginning in 1991, but it faltered badly. The advent of Prime Minister Modi, who is due for re-election next year, has put new energy into the process. Among other measures, he has brought 300 million people into the formal financial system by enabling them to have bank accounts, and he has tried to purge corrupt gains with a radical demonetisation scheme. He introduced a GST and new bankruptcy law, and wants to see more women participating in the economy.

印度的转型始于1991年展开的一项早期的自由化计划,但是那个计划遭遇了彻底的失败。即将在明年竞选连任的莫迪总理的到来为这一进程注入了新的活力。他让3亿多人拥有了银行账户,使他们进入了正式的金融体系,他还曾推行了一项激进的废钞计划以试图清除某些人的腐败所得。他引入了消费税和新的破产法,并且希望看到更多的女性参与到经济之中。而这些仅仅是他诸多措施中的一部分。

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